bean rally backs to $15.40, the ROI jumps to 35%. CBOT CORN DECEMBER 2009
So I will start with a 10% sale at
2006 and 2007 but worked to guarantee revenue in 2008. The CRC insurance guarantees that I will be in business next year. This December 2009 Corn chart shows resistance at the August high at $6.58 and the
June high of $7.07. Based on good ROI numbers and these key chart resistance levels, Alan Kluis is willing to make incremental scale-up sales on his 2009 corn crop when these prices approach these key price levels.
$13.90 and put on another 10% sale at $14.90. I plan to make incremental seasonal sales in March through
June of 2009 corn and soybeans.
By the end of June, using a conservative yield estimate, I would like to have at least 50% of the crop hedged with 20% to 30% covered with put options.
This combination of having the inputs locked in, 75% CRC, 75% of the price protected has worked well in each of the last three years. The put options expired worthless in
2010 and 2011 Marketing choices
For 2010 and 2011 sales, I am going to recommend that you go slowly. First of all, when I look at my land, fertilizer, and fuel costs for higher profits unless you are posi- tight and possibly very tight for the 2010-2011, I do not see a practical tioned correctly. next two to four years. It also shows way of locking in my inputs all the the need to be a disciplined seasonal way out. working spreadsheets seller.
When you look at the 2008-2011 At this writing, I want to empha- As I look ahead at the soybean
corn and soybean supply-demand size that this is not a formal forecast crop and usage scenarios for the next
outlook (see previous page), you but more of a working spreadsheet four years, I know a lot is sure to
can see that we need more acreage as I evaluate different acreage, yield, change, and some things may change
and better yields each year for the and usage scenarios. Obviously, this my forecast that I haven’t even
next three years to maintain even a is subject to change as global finan- thought of yet.
minimal stocks-to-use ratio. cials change and different weather The 2008-2011 spreadsheet does
If you are a livestock feeder, these and yield variables play out over the show that it will take at least until
projections show the need to get next three years. 2011 before any significant increase
aggressive this fall. If you are a corn With that said, this four-year look in U.S. soybean ending stocks is
and soybean grower, you will want ahead shows that corn stocks and likely to develop. This is why I rec-
to do whatever you can to get all of the supply-demand ratios will stay ommend going slow in making new-
your inputs locked in and do what- crop 2009 and 2010 sales until the
ever you can to maximize yields. A spring and summer of 2009. Focus
higher grain price does not create on locking in inputs and maximizing
yield.
learn more Kluis Commodities, 901 Twelve oaks Center drive, Suite 907, Wayzata, mn 55391 888/769-2855 | www.kluisnews.com
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